Authors:
- Paul Andrew Bourne: Academia.edu, ResearchGate

- Ikhalfani Solan: ResearchGate

Abstract:
»Introduction: Sexual violence persists as a significant public health and human rights challenge in Jamaica, with rape rates that often exceed regional norms despite recent declines. Macro-crime research seldom isolates sexual assault or employs rigorous time-series designs, leaving uncertainty about how economic turbulence shapes this offence.
Objective: This study quantifies the contemporaneous and lagged influence of three macroeconomic indicators-real GDP per capita, consumer-price inflation, and unemployment-on Jamaica’s annual rape incidence between 2001 and 2023.
Methods and Materials: A balanced annual panel was assembled from official sources, including Jamaica Constabulary Force crime returns, Statistical Institute national accounts and labour force surveys, and Bank ofJamaica price bulletins. Augmented Dickey-Fullertests guided the differencing, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average model with exogenous regressors, ARIMAX (2,1,2), was selected based on Akaike's criteria. Newey-West standard errors, Ljung-Box, and Jarque-Bera diagnostics were used to assess parameter reliability, serial independence, and distribution assumptions.
Findings: Inflation and unemployment exhibited significant positive elasticities. A one-percentage-point rise in inflation was predicted to result in 0.28 additional rapes per 100,000 population (p = 0.001), while a comparable increase in unemployment added 1.10 incidents (p = 0.046). Real GDP per capita was not statistically different from zero after controlling for price effects. Residual tests indicated no autocorrelation or structural break.
Conclusion: Results support strain-opportunity theories that economic shocks intensify sexual violence. Policies that anchor inflation within the 4-6 per cent target band and accelerate labour-market absorption are likely to reinforce the post-2015 decline in rape. The model serves as an early warning tool for preventing violence in small Caribbean states; however, future research should incorporate distributional and spatial heterogeneity to enhance its effectiveness.« (Source: International Journal of Economics & Finance Research & Applications)

Contents:

	Abstract (p. 25)
	Introduction (p. 26)
	Statement of the Problem (p. 27)
	Objectives of the Study (p. 27)
	Theoretical Framework (p. 28)
	Literature Review (p. 29)
	Methods and Materials (p. 29)
	Statistical techniques (p. 31)
		Exploratory analysis of stationarity testing (p. 31)
		Model specification (p. 31)
		Parameter estimation (p. 31)
		Diagnostic testing (p. 31)
		Interpretation strategy (p. 31)
		Ethical Considerations (p. 32)
	Findings (p. 32)
		Overview of the data (p. 32)
		Model construction: ARIMAX specification (p. 34)
		The Rape and Macroeconomic Indicators Model (p. 35)
	Final Rape Rate Model for Jamaica (p. 36)
	Summary of findings (p. 37)
	Discussion (p. 37)
	Conclusion (p. 40)
	Recommendations (p. 41)
		1. Policy Interventions (p. 41)
		2. Methodological Enhancements (p. 42)
		3. Directions for Future Research (p. 43)
	References (p. 43)

Wikipedia: History of the Americas: History of Jamaica | Work (human activity): Unemployment | Sex and the law: Rape / History of rape